Statistics / Football / World. CAC Games / Venezuela U21 vs Guatemala U21

Venezuela U21 vs Guatemala U21 Statistics & Analysis

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Venezuela U21
Aug 01, 2026 - 20:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
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Guatemala U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Venezuela U21 Venezuela U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2479514

Closing Odds 1.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Venezuela U21 win · Venezuela U21 3–1 Guatemala U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Guatemala U21 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Guatemala U21 (1X2) by about 26.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Venezuela U21 (1X2) 36.1 76.7 -40.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 15.6 +14.1
Guatemala U21 (1X2) 34.2 7.7 +26.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.6 -9.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.4 +9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Guatemala U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.7%. The difference — about 26.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Venezuela U21 (1X2) 1.16 1.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.72 5.72 0.0
Guatemala U21 (1X2) 11.55 11.55 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.16 2.16 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Venezuela U21; market prices Venezuela U21 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Venezuela U21 1.32 xG vs Guatemala U21 1.28 → Venezuela U21 36.1%
  • Market: Venezuela U21 ~76.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
CAC Games CAC Games — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia U21 3 2 1 0 7
2 Panama U21 3 2 0 1 6
3 Cuba U21 3 1 0 2 3
4 Costa Rica U21 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panama U21 3 6 1 +5 6
2 Colombia U21 3 3 1 +2 7
3 Cuba U21 3 1 4 -3 3
4 Costa Rica U21 3 1 5 -4 1