Statistics / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Grêmio Anápolis vs Rio Verde

Grêmio Anápolis vs Rio Verde Statistics & Analysis

Grêmio Anápolis Grêmio Anápolis
Oct 03, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 78%
Rio Verde Rio Verde
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rio Verde Rio Verde ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11260918

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rio Verde win · Grêmio Anápolis 1–2 Rio Verde
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Grêmio Anápolis vs Rio Verde
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Grêmio Anápolis 1.25 — Rio Verde 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 9 5 2 32
2 Bom Jesus EC 16 7 7 2 28
3 Mineiros 16 7 4 5 25
4 Goianésia 15 6 6 3 24
5 Morrinhos 16 6 4 6 22
6 Goiânia 16 4 8 4 20
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 18
8 Crixás EC 16 3 7 6 16
9 Trindade 16 2 6 8 12
10 Grêmio Anápolis 16 2 5 9 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 25 11 +14 32
2 Morrinhos 16 22 21 +1 22
3 Bom Jesus EC 16 21 13 +8 28
4 Goianésia 15 18 17 +1 24
5 Crixás EC 16 18 23 -5 16
6 Mineiros 16 17 14 +3 25
7 Grêmio Anápolis 16 16 27 -11 11
8 Tupy FC 15 13 13 0 18
9 Goiânia 16 13 14 -1 20
10 Trindade 16 13 23 -10 12
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions