Statistics / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Bom Jesus EC vs Goiânia

Bom Jesus EC vs Goiânia Statistics & Analysis

Bom Jesus EC Bom Jesus EC
Sep 20, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Goiânia Goiânia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bom Jesus EC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8695674

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bom Jesus EC 1–1 Goiânia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Bom Jesus EC vs Goiânia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Bom Jesus EC 1.32 — Goiânia 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +14.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 14 8 4 2 28
2 Bom Jesus EC 14 6 6 2 24
3 Goianésia 14 6 6 2 24
4 Morrinhos 14 5 4 5 19
5 Mineiros 14 5 4 5 19
6 Goiânia 14 4 6 4 18
7 Tupy FC 14 4 5 5 17
8 Crixás EC 14 3 6 5 15
9 Grêmio Anápolis 14 2 5 7 11
10 Trindade 14 1 6 7 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 14 21 8 +13 28
2 Morrinhos 14 20 19 +1 19
3 Goianésia 14 18 16 +2 24
4 Bom Jesus EC 14 17 11 +6 24
5 Crixás EC 14 16 20 -4 15
6 Mineiros 14 15 14 +1 19
7 Grêmio Anápolis 14 15 23 -8 11
8 Tupy FC 14 12 12 0 17
9 Goiânia 14 11 12 -1 18
10 Trindade 14 11 21 -10 9
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions