Statistics / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Morrinhos vs Tupy FC

Morrinhos vs Tupy FC Statistics & Analysis

Morrinhos Morrinhos
Aug 30, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Tupy FC Tupy FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tupy FC Tupy FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5304124

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tupy FC win · Morrinhos 1–3 Tupy FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Morrinhos vs Tupy FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Morrinhos 1.25 — Tupy FC 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 15 8 5 2 29
2 Bom Jesus EC 15 6 7 2 25
3 Goianésia 15 6 6 3 24
4 Morrinhos 15 6 4 5 22
5 Mineiros 15 6 4 5 22
6 Goiânia 15 4 7 4 19
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 18
8 Crixás EC 15 3 6 6 15
9 Trindade 15 2 6 7 12
10 Grêmio Anápolis 15 2 5 8 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 15 23 10 +13 29
2 Morrinhos 15 22 20 +2 22
3 Bom Jesus EC 15 19 13 +6 25
4 Goianésia 15 18 17 +1 24
5 Crixás EC 15 17 22 -5 15
6 Mineiros 15 16 14 +2 22
7 Grêmio Anápolis 15 15 25 -10 11
8 Tupy FC 15 13 13 0 18
9 Trindade 15 13 21 -8 12
10 Goiânia 15 12 13 -1 19
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions