Statistics / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Grêmio Anápolis vs Goianésia

Grêmio Anápolis vs Goianésia Statistics & Analysis

Grêmio Anápolis Grêmio Anápolis
Aug 26, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Goianésia Goianésia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Grêmio Anápolis Goianésia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4680515

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Goianésia win · Grêmio Anápolis 1–2 Goianésia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.49 percentage points on Grêmio Anápolis (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Grêmio Anápolis (1X2) 35.2 28.2 +7.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.5 +0.2
Goianésia (1X2) 35.2 42.4 -7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 39.0 +9.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.0 -9.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.0%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Grêmio Anápolis (1X2) 2.88 3.19 -2.5
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.05 +0.2
Goianésia (1X2) 2.2 2.12 +2.3
Over 2.5 goals 2.33 2.36 +0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.49 1.51 -0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Grêmio Anápolis vs Goianésia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Grêmio Anápolis 1.3 — Goianésia 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +10.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 14 8 4 2 28
2 Bom Jesus EC 14 6 6 2 24
3 Goianésia 14 6 6 2 24
4 Morrinhos 14 5 4 5 19
5 Mineiros 14 5 4 5 19
6 Goiânia 15 4 7 4 19
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 18
8 Crixás EC 14 3 6 5 15
9 Grêmio Anápolis 14 2 5 7 11
10 Trindade 14 1 6 7 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 14 21 8 +13 28
2 Morrinhos 14 20 19 +1 19
3 Goianésia 14 18 16 +2 24
4 Bom Jesus EC 14 17 11 +6 24
5 Crixás EC 14 16 20 -4 15
6 Mineiros 14 15 14 +1 19
7 Grêmio Anápolis 14 15 23 -8 11
8 Tupy FC 15 13 13 0 18
9 Goiânia 15 12 13 -1 19
10 Trindade 14 11 21 -10 9
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions