Rozova dolina vs Neftochimic Burgas Statistics & Analysis

Rozova dolina

Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.15

3 1.45

xG Accuracy: 63%

Neftochimic Burgas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Neftochimic Burgas Neftochimic Burgas ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13212687

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Neftochimic Burgas win · Rozova dolina 1–3 Neftochimic Burgas

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Third League - Southeast
Fixture: Rozova dolina vs Neftochimic Burgas
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Rozova dolina 1.15 — Neftochimic Burgas 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	9	0	0	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	8	0	2	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	8	0	1	24
4	Yambol 1915	9	5	2	2	17
5	Sayana Haskovo	8	5	2	1	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	5	1	3	16
7	Rodopa Smolyan	9	4	2	3	14
8	Gigant Saedinenie	8	4	1	3	13
9	Sozopol	10	4	1	5	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	2	6	2	12
11	Zagorets	9	3	1	5	10
12	Botev Plovdiv II	8	2	3	3	9
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	2	2	6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	8	2	1	5	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	7
16	Sekirovo	9	1	3	5	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	1	0	8	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	28	8	+20	27
2	Yambol 1915	9	27	12	+15	17
3	Maritsa Milevo	10	25	11	+14	24
4	Spartak Plovdiv	9	22	10	+12	24
5	Sozopol	10	20	19	+1	13
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	18	13	+5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	8	17	14	+3	13
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Sekirovo	9	16	27	-11	6
10	Sayana Haskovo	8	15	6	+9	17
11	Rozova dolina	10	15	16	-1	12
12	Botev Plovdiv II	8	13	15	-2	9
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	12	18	-6	8
14	Zagorets	9	10	19	-9	10
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	8	10	21	-11	7
16	Atletik Kuklen	10	10	25	-15	7
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	8	17	-9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	5	22	-17	3