Maritsa Plovdiv vs Levski Karlovo Statistics & Analysis

Maritsa Plovdiv

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.39

2 1.21

xG Accuracy: 72%

Levski Karlovo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Maritsa Plovdiv Levski Karlovo ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10103759

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Levski Karlovo win · Maritsa Plovdiv 1–2 Levski Karlovo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Third League - Southeast
Fixture: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Levski Karlovo
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Maritsa Plovdiv 1.39 — Levski Karlovo 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	7	7	0	0	21
2	Spartak Plovdiv	7	6	0	1	18
3	Yambol 1915	7	5	1	1	16
4	Maritsa Milevo	7	5	0	2	15
5	Sayana Haskovo	7	4	2	1	14
6	Gigant Saedinenie	7	4	1	2	13
7	Rodopa Smolyan	7	3	2	2	11
8	Sozopol	7	3	1	3	10
9	Neftochimic Burgas	7	3	1	3	10
10	Rozova dolina	7	2	4	1	10
11	Zagorets	7	3	1	3	10
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	7	2	1	4	7
13	Dimitrovgrad	7	2	0	5	6
14	Botev Plovdiv II	7	1	3	3	6
15	Atletik Kuklen	7	2	0	5	6
16	Sekirovo	7	1	2	4	5
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	7	0	1	6	1
18	Levski Karlovo	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	7	24	7	+17	21
2	Yambol 1915	7	24	7	+17	16
3	Spartak Plovdiv	7	18	10	+8	18
4	Gigant Saedinenie	7	17	12	+5	13
5	Sozopol	7	14	11	+3	10
6	Sayana Haskovo	7	13	6	+7	14
7	Rodopa Smolyan	7	13	12	+1	11
8	Neftochimic Burgas	7	13	12	+1	10
9	Maritsa Milevo	7	12	9	+3	15
10	Sekirovo	7	11	21	-10	5
11	Zagorets	7	10	12	-2	10
12	Dimitrovgrad	7	10	14	-4	6
13	Botev Plovdiv II	7	10	15	-5	6
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	7	10	16	-6	7
15	Rozova dolina	7	9	8	+1	10
16	Atletik Kuklen	7	7	17	-10	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	7	4	15	-11	1
18	Levski Karlovo	7	3	18	-15	0