Rozova dolina vs Rodopa Smolyan Statistics & Analysis

Rozova dolina

Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.26

1 1.34

xG Accuracy: 85%

Rodopa Smolyan

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Rodopa Smolyan Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7449789

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Rozova dolina 1–1 Rodopa Smolyan

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Third League - Southeast
Fixture: Rozova dolina vs Rodopa Smolyan
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Rozova dolina 1.26 — Rodopa Smolyan 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Spartak Plovdiv	5	5	0	0	15
2	Levski Krumovgrad	5	5	0	0	15
3	Maritsa Milevo	5	4	0	1	12
4	Yambol 1915	5	3	1	1	10
5	Gigant Saedinenie	5	3	1	1	10
6	Sayana Haskovo	5	2	2	1	8
7	Rodopa Smolyan	5	2	1	2	7
8	Zagorets	5	2	1	2	7
9	Sozopol	5	2	0	3	6
10	Dimitrovgrad	5	2	0	3	6
11	Rozova dolina	5	1	3	1	6
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	4	2	0	2	6
13	Atletik Kuklen	5	2	0	3	6
14	Neftochimic Burgas	4	1	1	2	4
15	Botev Plovdiv II	5	1	1	3	4
16	Sekirovo	5	0	2	3	2
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	5	0	1	4	1
18	Levski Karlovo	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Spartak Plovdiv	5	15	6	+9	15
2	Yambol 1915	5	15	6	+9	10
3	Levski Krumovgrad	5	14	6	+8	15
4	Gigant Saedinenie	5	12	9	+3	10
5	Maritsa Milevo	5	10	4	+6	12
6	Sozopol	5	10	9	+1	6
7	Dimitrovgrad	5	9	9	0	6
8	Sayana Haskovo	5	8	6	+2	8
9	Botev Plovdiv II	5	8	13	-5	4
10	Rodopa Smolyan	5	7	8	-1	7
11	Rozova dolina	5	6	6	0	6
12	Zagorets	5	6	7	-1	7
13	Neftochimic Burgas	4	6	8	-2	4
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	4	5	6	-1	6
15	Sekirovo	5	5	12	-7	2
16	Atletik Kuklen	5	4	6	-2	6
17	Levski Karlovo	5	2	14	-12	0
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	5	1	8	-7	1