Statistics / Football / Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C / Os Marialvas vs Sertanense

Os Marialvas vs Sertanense Statistics & Analysis

Os Marialvas Os Marialvas
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 49%
Sertanense Sertanense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Os Marialvas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13221221

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Os Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
  • Fixture: Os Marialvas vs Sertanense
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Os Marialvas 1.45 — Sertanense 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mortágua 4 3 1 0 10
2 O Elvas 4 3 1 0 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD da Serra 4 2 2 0 8
6 Naval 1º de Maio 4 2 0 2 6
7 AD Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 6
9 Fátima 4 1 1 2 4
10 Atlético Malveira 4 1 1 2 4
11 FC Alverca II 4 1 0 3 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 1
14 Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mortágua 4 9 4 +5 10
2 Os Marialvas 4 8 2 +6 9
3 AD Nogueirense 4 8 7 +1 6
4 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 7 9 -2 6
5 O Elvas 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Oliveira Hospital 4 6 4 +2 9
7 UD da Serra 4 6 4 +2 8
8 Naval 1º de Maio 4 6 4 +2 6
9 FC Alverca II 4 6 4 +2 3
10 Fátima 4 6 5 +1 4
11 Fazendense 4 5 12 -7 1
12 Atlético Malveira 4 4 7 -3 4
13 Sertanense 4 3 7 -4 2
14 Nazarenos 4 1 10 -9 0