Statistics / Football / Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C / AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1º de Maio

AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1º de Maio Statistics & Analysis

AD Nogueirense AD Nogueirense
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 49%
Naval 1º de Maio Naval 1º de Maio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Naval 1º de Maio Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13221070

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · AD Nogueirense 0–0 Naval 1º de Maio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
  • Fixture: AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1º de Maio
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): AD Nogueirense 1.24 — Naval 1º de Maio 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mortágua 4 3 1 0 10
2 O Elvas 4 3 1 0 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD da Serra 4 2 2 0 8
6 Naval 1º de Maio 4 2 0 2 6
7 AD Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 6
9 Fátima 4 1 1 2 4
10 Atlético Malveira 4 1 1 2 4
11 FC Alverca II 4 1 0 3 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 1
14 Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mortágua 4 9 4 +5 10
2 Os Marialvas 4 8 2 +6 9
3 AD Nogueirense 4 8 7 +1 6
4 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 7 9 -2 6
5 O Elvas 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Oliveira Hospital 4 6 4 +2 9
7 UD da Serra 4 6 4 +2 8
8 Naval 1º de Maio 4 6 4 +2 6
9 FC Alverca II 4 6 4 +2 3
10 Fátima 4 6 5 +1 4
11 Fazendense 4 5 12 -7 1
12 Atlético Malveira 4 4 7 -3 4
13 Sertanense 4 3 7 -4 2
14 Nazarenos 4 1 10 -9 0