Statistics / Football / Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C / Os Marialvas vs Fátima

Os Marialvas vs Fátima Statistics & Analysis

Os Marialvas Os Marialvas
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 45%
Fátima Fátima
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Os Marialvas Os Marialvas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6367865

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Os Marialvas win · Os Marialvas 3–0 Fátima
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
  • Fixture: Os Marialvas vs Fátima
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Os Marialvas 1.35 — Fátima 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mortágua 4 3 1 0 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 9
4 UD da Serra 4 2 2 0 8
5 O Elvas 3 2 1 0 7
6 Naval 1º de Maio 4 2 0 2 6
7 AD Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 6
9 Fátima 4 1 1 2 4
10 Atlético Malveira 4 1 1 2 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 1
13 FC Alverca II 3 0 0 3 0
14 Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mortágua 4 9 4 +5 10
2 Os Marialvas 4 8 2 +6 9
3 AD Nogueirense 4 8 7 +1 6
4 Benfica Castelo Branco 4 7 9 -2 6
5 Oliveira Hospital 4 6 4 +2 9
6 UD da Serra 4 6 4 +2 8
7 Naval 1º de Maio 4 6 4 +2 6
8 Fátima 4 6 5 +1 4
9 Fazendense 3 5 7 -2 1
10 O Elvas 3 4 2 +2 7
11 Atlético Malveira 4 4 7 -3 4
12 Sertanense 3 3 5 -2 2
13 FC Alverca II 3 1 4 -3 0
14 Nazarenos 4 1 10 -9 0