Statistics / Football / Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B / Sousense vs União Lamas

Sousense vs União Lamas Statistics & Analysis

Sousense Sousense
Sep 13, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 39%
União Lamas União Lamas
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sousense Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7444037

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sousense 3–3 União Lamas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
  • Fixture: Sousense vs União Lamas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Sousense 1.35 — União Lamas 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Sousense & União Lamas!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ovarense 4 4 0 0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 8
4 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 7
5 Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 6
6 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5
7 União Lamas 4 1 2 1 5
8 Cinfães 3 1 1 1 4
9 Castro Daire 3 1 1 1 4
10 Beira-Mar 4 0 3 1 3
11 Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 3
12 Guarda 4 0 1 3 1
13 Estrela Calheta 2 0 1 1 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ovarense 4 8 0 +8 12
2 Camacha 4 6 4 +2 8
3 Machico 4 5 2 +3 8
4 Sanjoanense 4 5 5 0 5
5 União Lamas 4 5 5 0 5
6 Florgrade 4 4 2 +2 7
7 Salgueiros 4 4 3 +1 6
8 Cinfães 3 4 3 +1 4
9 Beira-Mar 4 4 6 -2 3
10 Alpendorada 4 4 7 -3 3
11 Sousense 4 3 8 -5 1
12 Castro Daire 3 2 3 -1 4
13 Guarda 4 2 5 -3 1
14 Estrela Calheta 2 0 3 -3 1
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Predictions