Statistics / Football / Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B / Sanjoanense vs Beira-Mar

Sanjoanense vs Beira-Mar Statistics & Analysis

Sanjoanense Sanjoanense
Aug 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 85%
Beira-Mar Beira-Mar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Beira-Mar Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3611499

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sanjoanense 1–1 Beira-Mar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Beira-Mar (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sanjoanense (1X2) 32.9 39.0 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.6 +1.9
Beira-Mar (1X2) 37.6 33.3 +4.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.9 +4.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.1 -4.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.9%. The difference — about 4.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sanjoanense (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Beira-Mar (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
  • Fixture: Sanjoanense vs Beira-Mar
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Sanjoanense 1.25 — Beira-Mar 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ovarense 4 4 0 0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 8
4 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 7
5 Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 6
6 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5
7 União Lamas 4 1 2 1 5
8 Cinfães 3 1 1 1 4
9 Castro Daire 3 1 1 1 4
10 Beira-Mar 4 0 3 1 3
11 Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 3
12 Guarda 4 0 1 3 1
13 Estrela Calheta 2 0 1 1 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ovarense 4 8 0 +8 12
2 Camacha 4 6 4 +2 8
3 Machico 4 5 2 +3 8
4 Sanjoanense 4 5 5 0 5
5 União Lamas 4 5 5 0 5
6 Florgrade 4 4 2 +2 7
7 Salgueiros 4 4 3 +1 6
8 Cinfães 3 4 3 +1 4
9 Beira-Mar 4 4 6 -2 3
10 Alpendorada 4 4 7 -3 3
11 Sousense 4 3 8 -5 1
12 Castro Daire 3 2 3 -1 4
13 Guarda 4 2 5 -3 1
14 Estrela Calheta 2 0 3 -3 1
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Portugal. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Predictions