Paduano vs 7 de Abril Statistics & Analysis

Paduano

Oct 11, 2026 - 18:00

5 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 26%

7 de Abril

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Paduano Paduano ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13234041

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Paduano win · Paduano 5–0 7 de Abril

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Paduano vs 7 de Abril
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Paduano 1.36 — 7 de Abril 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Carioca B2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Friburguense	8	6	2	0	20
2	Cardoso Moreira	8	5	1	2	16
3	Santa Cruz RJ	8	5	0	3	15
4	Paduano	8	4	2	2	14
5	Serra Macaense	8	4	2	2	14
6	SE Belford Roxo	8	3	4	1	13
7	Campos AA	8	3	3	2	12
8	Rio de Janeiro	8	3	1	4	10
9	7 de Abril	8	3	1	4	10
10	Barra Mansa	8	1	4	3	7
11	Búzios	8	1	0	7	3
12	Paraty	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Friburguense	8	15	6	+9	20
2	Cardoso Moreira	8	15	6	+9	16
3	SE Belford Roxo	8	15	7	+8	13
4	Serra Macaense	8	15	9	+6	14
5	Paduano	8	14	6	+8	14
6	Campos AA	8	12	11	+1	12
7	Rio de Janeiro	8	11	8	+3	10
8	Santa Cruz RJ	8	10	8	+2	15
9	7 de Abril	8	10	15	-5	10
10	Búzios	8	7	21	-14	3
11	Barra Mansa	8	6	11	-5	7
12	Paraty	8	5	27	-22	0