Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca B2 / Cardoso Moreira vs Serra Macaense

Cardoso Moreira vs Serra Macaense Statistics & Analysis

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Cardoso Moreira
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 52%
Serra Macaense Serra Macaense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cardoso Moreira Serra Macaense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757238

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Serra Macaense win · Cardoso Moreira 2–3 Serra Macaense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: Cardoso Moreira vs Serra Macaense
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Cardoso Moreira 1.3 — Serra Macaense 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Friburguense 6 4 2 0 14
2 Cardoso Moreira 6 4 0 2 12
3 Santa Cruz RJ 6 4 0 2 12
4 Paduano 6 3 2 1 11
5 Serra Macaense 6 3 1 2 10
6 7 de Abril 6 3 1 2 10
7 SE Belford Roxo 6 2 3 1 9
8 Rio de Janeiro 6 2 1 3 7
9 Campos AA 6 1 3 2 6
10 Barra Mansa 6 1 3 2 6
11 Búzios 6 1 0 5 3
12 Paraty 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SE Belford Roxo 6 12 6 +6 9
2 Friburguense 6 11 4 +7 14
3 Serra Macaense 6 11 8 +3 10
4 7 de Abril 6 10 8 +2 10
5 Cardoso Moreira 6 9 5 +4 12
6 Santa Cruz RJ 6 9 5 +4 12
7 Paduano 6 9 5 +4 11
8 Campos AA 6 8 10 -2 6
9 Rio de Janeiro 6 7 7 0 7
10 Barra Mansa 6 6 10 -4 6
11 Búzios 6 4 15 -11 3
12 Paraty 6 4 17 -13 0
Carioca B2 Brazil. Carioca B2 Predictions