Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca B2 / SE Belford Roxo vs Santa Cruz RJ

SE Belford Roxo vs Santa Cruz RJ Statistics & Analysis

SE Belford Roxo SE Belford Roxo
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 44%
Santa Cruz RJ Santa Cruz RJ
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SE Belford Roxo SE Belford Roxo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757151

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SE Belford Roxo win · SE Belford Roxo 3–0 Santa Cruz RJ
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: SE Belford Roxo vs Santa Cruz RJ
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): SE Belford Roxo 1.3 — Santa Cruz RJ 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santa Cruz RJ 5 4 0 1 12
2 Cardoso Moreira 5 4 0 1 12
3 Friburguense 5 3 2 0 11
4 Paduano 5 3 1 1 10
5 7 de Abril 5 3 1 1 10
6 Serra Macaense 5 2 1 2 7
7 SE Belford Roxo 5 1 3 1 6
8 Campos AA 5 1 2 2 5
9 Rio de Janeiro 5 1 1 3 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 3
11 Búzios 4 0 0 4 0
12 Paraty 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santa Cruz RJ 5 9 2 +7 12
2 Friburguense 5 9 3 +6 11
3 7 de Abril 5 9 6 +3 10
4 SE Belford Roxo 5 9 6 +3 6
5 Paduano 5 8 4 +4 10
6 Serra Macaense 5 8 6 +2 7
7 Cardoso Moreira 5 7 2 +5 12
8 Campos AA 5 7 9 -2 5
9 Rio de Janeiro 5 5 7 -2 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 5 8 -3 3
11 Paraty 5 2 14 -12 0
12 Búzios 4 1 12 -11 0
Carioca B2 Brazil. Carioca B2 Predictions