Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca B2 / Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro

Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro Statistics & Analysis

Serra Macaense Serra Macaense
Sep 27, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 85%
Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Serra Macaense Serra Macaense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10109285

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Serra Macaense win · Serra Macaense 2–1 Rio de Janeiro
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Serra Macaense 1.51 — Rio de Janeiro 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santa Cruz RJ 5 4 0 1 12
2 Cardoso Moreira 5 4 0 1 12
3 Friburguense 5 3 2 0 11
4 Paduano 5 3 1 1 10
5 7 de Abril 5 3 1 1 10
6 Serra Macaense 5 2 1 2 7
7 SE Belford Roxo 5 1 3 1 6
8 Campos AA 5 1 2 2 5
9 Rio de Janeiro 5 1 1 3 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 3
11 Búzios 4 0 0 4 0
12 Paraty 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santa Cruz RJ 5 9 2 +7 12
2 Friburguense 5 9 3 +6 11
3 7 de Abril 5 9 6 +3 10
4 SE Belford Roxo 5 9 6 +3 6
5 Paduano 5 8 4 +4 10
6 Serra Macaense 5 8 6 +2 7
7 Cardoso Moreira 5 7 2 +5 12
8 Campos AA 5 7 9 -2 5
9 Rio de Janeiro 5 5 7 -2 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 5 8 -3 3
11 Paraty 5 2 14 -12 0
12 Búzios 4 1 12 -11 0
Carioca B2 Brazil. Carioca B2 Predictions