Campos AA vs 7 de Abril Statistics & Analysis

Campos AA

Sep 27, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 74%

7 de Abril

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Campos AA 7 de Abril ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10109077

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 7 de Abril win · Campos AA 1–2 7 de Abril

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Campos AA vs 7 de Abril
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Campos AA 1.36 — 7 de Abril 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Santa Cruz RJ	5	4	0	1	12
2	Cardoso Moreira	5	4	0	1	12
3	Friburguense	5	3	2	0	11
4	Paduano	5	3	1	1	10
5	7 de Abril	5	3	1	1	10
6	Serra Macaense	5	2	1	2	7
7	SE Belford Roxo	5	1	3	1	6
8	Campos AA	5	1	2	2	5
9	Rio de Janeiro	5	1	1	3	4
10	Barra Mansa	4	0	3	1	3
11	Búzios	4	0	0	4	0
12	Paraty	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Santa Cruz RJ	5	9	2	+7	12
2	Friburguense	5	9	3	+6	11
3	7 de Abril	5	9	6	+3	10
4	SE Belford Roxo	5	9	6	+3	6
5	Paduano	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Serra Macaense	5	8	6	+2	7
7	Cardoso Moreira	5	7	2	+5	12
8	Campos AA	5	7	9	-2	5
9	Rio de Janeiro	5	5	7	-2	4
10	Barra Mansa	4	5	8	-3	3
11	Paraty	5	2	14	-12	0
12	Búzios	4	1	12	-11	0