Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca B2 / Búzios vs Serra Macaense

Búzios vs Serra Macaense Statistics & Analysis

Búzios Búzios
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Serra Macaense Serra Macaense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Búzios Serra Macaense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8694386

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Serra Macaense win · Búzios 0–2 Serra Macaense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: Búzios vs Serra Macaense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Búzios 1.3 — Serra Macaense 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cardoso Moreira 4 4 0 0 12
2 Friburguense 4 3 1 0 10
3 Santa Cruz RJ 4 3 0 1 9
4 7 de Abril 4 2 1 1 7
5 Paduano 4 2 1 1 7
6 SE Belford Roxo 4 1 2 1 5
7 Campos AA 4 1 2 1 5
8 Serra Macaense 4 1 1 2 4
9 Rio de Janeiro 4 1 1 2 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 3
11 Paraty 4 0 0 4 0
12 Búzios 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santa Cruz RJ 4 8 2 +6 9
2 Cardoso Moreira 4 7 1 +6 12
3 Friburguense 4 7 1 +6 10
4 SE Belford Roxo 4 7 4 +3 5
5 7 de Abril 4 7 5 +2 7
6 Serra Macaense 4 6 5 +1 4
7 Campos AA 4 6 7 -1 5
8 Paduano 4 5 4 +1 7
9 Barra Mansa 4 5 8 -3 3
10 Rio de Janeiro 4 4 5 -1 4
11 Paraty 4 2 11 -9 0
12 Búzios 4 1 12 -11 0
Carioca B2 Brazil. Carioca B2 Predictions