Barra Mansa vs 7 de Abril Statistics & Analysis

Barra Mansa

Sep 14, 2026 - 17:45

1 1.31

4 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

7 de Abril

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Barra Mansa 7 de Abril ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573167

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 7 de Abril win · Barra Mansa 1–4 7 de Abril

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Barra Mansa vs 7 de Abril
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Barra Mansa 1.31 — 7 de Abril 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Carioca B2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Santa Cruz RJ	5	4	0	1	12
2	Cardoso Moreira	5	4	0	1	12
3	Friburguense	5	3	2	0	11
4	Paduano	5	3	1	1	10
5	7 de Abril	5	3	1	1	10
6	Serra Macaense	5	2	1	2	7
7	SE Belford Roxo	5	1	3	1	6
8	Campos AA	5	1	2	2	5
9	Rio de Janeiro	5	1	1	3	4
10	Barra Mansa	4	0	3	1	3
11	Búzios	4	0	0	4	0
12	Paraty	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Santa Cruz RJ	5	9	2	+7	12
2	Friburguense	5	9	3	+6	11
3	7 de Abril	5	9	6	+3	10
4	SE Belford Roxo	5	9	6	+3	6
5	Paduano	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Serra Macaense	5	8	6	+2	7
7	Cardoso Moreira	5	7	2	+5	12
8	Campos AA	5	7	9	-2	5
9	Rio de Janeiro	5	5	7	-2	4
10	Barra Mansa	4	5	8	-3	3
11	Paraty	5	2	14	-12	0
12	Búzios	4	1	12	-11	0