Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bremen / Vatan Sport vs Union Bremen

Vatan Sport vs Union Bremen Statistics & Analysis

Vatan Sport Vatan Sport
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.19
3 1.41
xG Accuracy: 47%
Union Bremen Union Bremen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Union Bremen Union Bremen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10091621

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Bremen win · Vatan Sport 0–3 Union Bremen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Bremen
  • Fixture: Vatan Sport vs Union Bremen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Vatan Sport 1.19 — Union Bremen 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Bremen Oberliga - Bremen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hemelingen 8 7 1 0 22
2 Blumenthaler SV 8 7 0 1 21
3 OSC Bremerhaven 8 6 1 1 19
4 Brinkumer SV 7 6 0 1 18
5 Aumund-Vegesack 8 4 1 3 13
6 Eiche Horn 7 3 2 2 11
7 Vatan Sport 7 3 1 3 10
8 Grohn 8 3 1 4 10
9 Union Bremen 7 2 3 2 9
10 BTS Neustadt 8 3 0 5 9
11 Schwachhausen 7 3 0 4 9
12 Geestemünde 7 2 2 3 8
13 Leher TS 8 1 2 5 5
14 Werder Bremen III 8 1 1 6 4
15 Woltmershausen 8 1 1 6 4
16 Oberneuland 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 OSC Bremerhaven 8 33 6 +27 19
2 Hemelingen 8 31 3 +28 22
3 Blumenthaler SV 8 31 8 +23 21
4 Aumund-Vegesack 8 22 16 +6 13
5 Brinkumer SV 7 21 6 +15 18
6 Vatan Sport 7 19 15 +4 10
7 Geestemünde 7 17 21 -4 8
8 Union Bremen 7 14 15 -1 9
9 BTS Neustadt 8 14 21 -7 9
10 Grohn 8 13 22 -9 10
11 Werder Bremen III 8 12 24 -12 4
12 Woltmershausen 8 10 32 -22 4
13 Schwachhausen 7 9 18 -9 9
14 Leher TS 8 8 17 -9 5
15 Eiche Horn 7 7 11 -4 11
16 Oberneuland 8 7 33 -26 2