Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bremen / Werder Bremen III vs Vatan Sport

Werder Bremen III vs Vatan Sport Statistics & Analysis

Werder Bremen III Werder Bremen III
Aug 09, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.43
5 1.17
xG Accuracy: 23%
Vatan Sport Vatan Sport
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Werder Bremen III Vatan Sport ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2963659

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vatan Sport win · Werder Bremen III 3–5 Vatan Sport
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Bremen
  • Fixture: Werder Bremen III vs Vatan Sport
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Werder Bremen III 1.43 — Vatan Sport 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Bremen Oberliga - Bremen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hemelingen 8 7 1 0 22
2 Blumenthaler SV 8 7 0 1 21
3 Brinkumer SV 8 7 0 1 21
4 OSC Bremerhaven 8 6 1 1 19
5 Aumund-Vegesack 8 4 1 3 13
6 Union Bremen 8 3 3 2 12
7 Eiche Horn 8 3 3 2 12
8 Vatan Sport 8 3 1 4 10
9 Grohn 8 3 1 4 10
10 Schwachhausen 8 3 1 4 10
11 BTS Neustadt 8 3 0 5 9
12 Geestemünde 8 2 2 4 8
13 Leher TS 8 1 2 5 5
14 Werder Bremen III 8 1 1 6 4
15 Woltmershausen 8 1 1 6 4
16 Oberneuland 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 OSC Bremerhaven 8 33 6 +27 19
2 Hemelingen 8 31 3 +28 22
3 Blumenthaler SV 8 31 8 +23 21
4 Brinkumer SV 8 28 7 +21 21
5 Aumund-Vegesack 8 22 16 +6 13
6 Vatan Sport 8 19 18 +1 10
7 Geestemünde 8 18 28 -10 8
8 Union Bremen 8 17 15 +2 12
9 BTS Neustadt 8 14 21 -7 9
10 Grohn 8 13 22 -9 10
11 Werder Bremen III 8 12 24 -12 4
12 Schwachhausen 8 10 19 -9 10
13 Woltmershausen 8 10 32 -22 4
14 Eiche Horn 8 8 12 -4 12
15 Leher TS 8 8 17 -9 5
16 Oberneuland 8 7 33 -26 2