Rakow II vs Stilon Gorzów Statistics & Analysis

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Rakow II

Aug 19, 2026 - 12:30

1 1.31

4 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Stilon Gorzów

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Rakow II Stilon Gorzów ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3816638

Closing Odds 2.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Stilon Gorzów win · Rakow II 1–4 Stilon Gorzów

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.61 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Stilon Gorzów (1X2) by about 7.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rakow II (1X2)	35.6	45.0	-9.4
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.9	+1.7
Stilon Gorzów (1X2)	34.7	27.1	+7.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.1	-2.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.9	+2.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Stilon Gorzów (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.1%. The difference — about 7.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Rakow II (1X2)	1.83	2.0	-3.6
Draw (1X2)	3.44	3.22	+2.1
Stilon Gorzów (1X2)	3.47	3.32	+1.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.83	-5.6
Under 2.5 goals	2.12	1.91	+5.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 3
Fixture: Rakow II vs Stilon Gorzów
Kickoff: 2026-08-19 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Rakow II 1.31 — Stilon Gorzów 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zagłębie Lubin II	9	6	3	0	21
2	Sparta Katowice	9	6	2	1	20
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	9	6	2	1	20
4	Barycz Sułów	9	6	1	2	19
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	9	5	1	3	16
6	Górnik Polkowice	9	4	2	3	14
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	9	3	3	3	12
8	Kluczbork	9	4	0	5	12
9	Warta Gorzów	9	3	3	3	12
10	Miedź Legnica II	9	3	2	4	11
11	ROW Rybnik	9	3	2	4	11
12	Stal Brzeg	9	3	2	4	11
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	9	3	2	4	11
14	Stilon Gorzów	9	2	4	3	10
15	Rakow II	9	2	3	4	9
16	Ślęza Wrocław	9	2	0	7	6
17	Polonia Nysa	9	1	2	6	5
18	Carina Gubin	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica II	9	23	18	+5	11
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	9	19	9	+10	21
3	ROW Rybnik	9	18	15	+3	11
4	Górnik Polkowice	9	18	16	+2	14
5	Sparta Katowice	9	16	6	+10	20
6	Stal Brzeg	9	15	12	+3	11
7	Barycz Sułów	9	14	8	+6	19
8	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	9	14	9	+5	16
9	Stilon Gorzów	9	14	13	+1	10
10	Ślęza Wrocław	9	14	25	-11	6
11	Rakow II	9	12	17	-5	9
12	Odra Bytom Odrzański	9	11	4	+7	20
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	9	11	13	-2	11
14	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	9	10	7	+3	12
15	Kluczbork	9	9	14	-5	12
16	Warta Gorzów	9	9	15	-6	12
17	Polonia Nysa	9	8	21	-13	5
18	Carina Gubin	9	6	19	-13	5