Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al Zulfi vs Al-Raed

Al Zulfi vs Al-Raed Statistics & Analysis

Al Zulfi Al Zulfi
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 32%
Al-Raed Al-Raed
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Raed Al Zulfi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8705590

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al Zulfi win · Al Zulfi 4–0 Al-Raed
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Al-Raed (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Raed (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Zulfi (1X2) 32.4 41.4 -9.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.9 +0.7
Al-Raed (1X2) 38.0 29.7 +8.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.3 +2.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.7 -2.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Al-Raed (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.7%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Zulfi (1X2) 2.24 2.27 +0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.25 -0.1
Al-Raed (1X2) 3.13 3.17 +0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.1 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.72 1.74 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Zulfi vs Al-Raed
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Al Zulfi 1.24 — Al-Raed 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ula 5 5 0 0 15
2 Al Zulfi 6 2 4 0 10
3 Al Taee 6 3 1 2 10
4 Al Anwar 6 2 3 1 9
5 Damac 6 2 3 1 9
6 Al Jabalain 6 2 3 1 9
7 Al Wehda Club 6 1 5 0 8
8 Al-Adalah 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jeddah Club 6 2 2 2 8
10 Al Saqer 6 1 4 1 7
11 Al Najma 6 1 4 1 7
12 Al Orubah 6 1 4 1 7
13 Al-Raed 6 2 1 3 7
14 Al Akhdoud 5 1 3 1 6
15 Hajer 6 1 3 2 6
16 Al Jandal 6 1 2 3 5
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 0 2 4 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ula 5 10 1 +9 15
2 Al Wehda Club 6 9 7 +2 8
3 Al Taee 6 9 9 0 10
4 Al-Adalah 6 9 9 0 8
5 Al Jandal 6 9 9 0 5
6 Al Zulfi 6 7 1 +6 10
7 Damac 6 7 6 +1 9
8 Al Najma 6 7 7 0 7
9 Al Akhdoud 5 7 7 0 6
10 Al-Raed 6 7 10 -3 7
11 Jeddah Club 6 6 7 -1 8
12 Al Anwar 6 5 3 +2 9
13 Al Saqer 6 4 3 +1 7
14 Al Jabalain 6 4 4 0 9
15 Al Orubah 6 4 4 0 7
16 Hajer 6 4 7 -3 6
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 4 11 -7 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 7 -7 2