Al Najma vs Al-Raed Statistics & Analysis

Al Najma

Sep 14, 2026 - 17:20

1 1.28

1 1.32

xG Accuracy: 85%

Al-Raed

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al-Raed Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573117

Closing Odds 2.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Al Najma 1–1 Al-Raed

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Raed (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al Najma (1X2)	34.2	38.5	-4.3
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.7	+2.9
Al-Raed (1X2)	36.1	34.8	+1.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.6	-0.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.4	+0.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.7%. The difference — about 2.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Al Najma (1X2)	2.41	2.41
Draw (1X2)	3.47	3.47
Al-Raed (1X2)	2.67	2.67
Over 2.5 goals	1.96	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Division 1
Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Raed
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:20:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Al Najma 1.28 — Al-Raed 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Division 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al Ula	5	5	0	0	15
2	Al Anwar	5	2	2	1	8
3	Jeddah Club	5	2	2	1	8
4	Al Jabalain	5	2	2	1	8
5	Al Wehda Club	5	1	4	0	7
6	Al Zulfi	5	1	4	0	7
7	Al-Raed	5	2	1	2	7
8	Al Taee	5	2	1	2	7
9	Al Akhdoud	5	1	3	1	6
10	Al Najma	5	1	3	1	6
11	Damac	5	1	3	1	6
12	Al-Adalah	4	1	2	1	5
13	Hajer	5	1	2	2	5
14	Al Jandal	4	1	1	2	4
15	Al Saqer	5	0	4	1	4
16	Al Orubah	4	0	3	1	3
17	Al Bukayriyah	5	0	2	3	2
18	Al Jeel	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Ula	5	10	1	+9	15
2	Al Wehda Club	5	7	5	+2	7
3	Al-Raed	5	7	6	+1	7
4	Al Jandal	4	7	6	+1	4
5	Al Akhdoud	5	7	7	0	6
6	Jeddah Club	5	6	5	+1	8
7	Al Najma	5	6	6	0	6
8	Al-Adalah	4	6	6	0	5
9	Al Taee	5	6	8	-2	7
10	Al Anwar	5	4	2	+2	8
11	Al Jabalain	5	4	4	0	8
12	Damac	5	4	4	0	6
13	Hajer	5	4	7	-3	5
14	Al Zulfi	5	3	1	+2	7
15	Al Orubah	4	3	4	-1	3
16	Al Bukayriyah	5	3	8	-5	2
17	Al Saqer	5	2	3	-1	4
18	Al Jeel	4	0	6	-6	1