Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al-Adalah vs Al Saqer

Al-Adalah vs Al Saqer Statistics & Analysis

Al-Adalah Al-Adalah
Sep 07, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Al Saqer
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Saqer Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472759

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Saqer
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.9 percentage points on Al-Adalah (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Adalah (1X2) by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Adalah (1X2) 33.4 27.7 +5.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.9 +0.7
Al Saqer (1X2) 37.0 43.4 -6.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.3 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.7 +0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Al-Adalah (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.7%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Adalah (1X2) 3.03 3.35 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.21 +0.4
Al Saqer (1X2) 2.27 2.14 +2.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.96 1.97 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.84 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al Saqer
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Al-Adalah 1.26 — Al Saqer 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ula 5 5 0 0 15
2 Al Zulfi 6 2 4 0 10
3 Al Taee 6 3 1 2 10
4 Al Anwar 6 2 3 1 9
5 Damac 6 2 3 1 9
6 Al Jabalain 6 2 3 1 9
7 Al Wehda Club 6 1 5 0 8
8 Al-Adalah 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jeddah Club 6 2 2 2 8
10 Al Saqer 6 1 4 1 7
11 Al Najma 6 1 4 1 7
12 Al Orubah 6 1 4 1 7
13 Al-Raed 6 2 1 3 7
14 Al Akhdoud 5 1 3 1 6
15 Hajer 6 1 3 2 6
16 Al Jandal 6 1 2 3 5
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 0 2 4 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ula 5 10 1 +9 15
2 Al Wehda Club 6 9 7 +2 8
3 Al Taee 6 9 9 0 10
4 Al-Adalah 6 9 9 0 8
5 Al Jandal 6 9 9 0 5
6 Al Zulfi 6 7 1 +6 10
7 Damac 6 7 6 +1 9
8 Al Najma 6 7 7 0 7
9 Al Akhdoud 5 7 7 0 6
10 Al-Raed 6 7 10 -3 7
11 Jeddah Club 6 6 7 -1 8
12 Al Anwar 6 5 3 +2 9
13 Al Saqer 6 4 3 +1 7
14 Al Jabalain 6 4 4 0 9
15 Al Orubah 6 4 4 0 7
16 Hajer 6 4 7 -3 6
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 4 11 -7 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 7 -7 2