Statistics / Football / Romania. Cupa României / Timişul Şag vs Progresul Pecica

Timişul Şag vs Progresul Pecica Statistics & Analysis

Timişul Şag Timişul Şag
Jul 29, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 64%
Progresul Pecica Progresul Pecica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Timişul Şag Timişul Şag ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2117697

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Timişul Şag win · Timişul Şag 1–0 Progresul Pecica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cupa României
  • Fixture: Timişul Şag vs Progresul Pecica
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Timişul Şag 1.33 — Progresul Pecica 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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