Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest / Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia

Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia Statistics & Analysis

Slivnishki geroy Slivnishki geroy
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
Natsional Sofia Natsional Sofia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Slivnishki geroy Slivnishki geroy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13212410

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slivnishki geroy win · Slivnishki geroy 2–0 Natsional Sofia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Third League - Southwest
  • Fixture: Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Slivnishki geroy 1.33 — Natsional Sofia 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest Third League - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Minyor Pernik 11 8 2 1 26
2 Oborishte 10 6 4 0 22
3 Bansko 10 7 1 2 22
4 Strumska Slava 10 6 1 3 19
5 Septemvri Sofia II 10 6 1 3 19
6 Balkan Botevgrad 11 6 1 4 19
7 Kostinbrod 11 6 0 5 18
8 Botev Ihtiman 10 5 0 5 15
9 Slivnishki geroy 11 4 2 5 14
10 Septemvri Simitli 11 3 4 4 13
11 Slavia Sofia II 10 4 0 6 12
12 CSKA Sofia III 10 2 6 2 12
13 Levski Sofia II 11 3 3 5 12
14 Belasitsa 11 3 2 6 11
15 Chavdar Etropole 11 3 1 7 10
16 Kyustendil 10 2 3 5 9
17 Natsional Sofia 11 1 4 6 7
18 Pirin Razlog 11 2 1 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Minyor Pernik 11 24 6 +18 26
2 Oborishte 10 22 10 +12 22
3 Bansko 10 21 13 +8 22
4 Strumska Slava 10 20 12 +8 19
5 Belasitsa 11 17 21 -4 11
6 Kostinbrod 11 16 10 +6 18
7 Slivnishki geroy 11 16 18 -2 14
8 Septemvri Sofia II 10 15 10 +5 19
9 Slavia Sofia II 10 15 14 +1 12
10 Septemvri Simitli 11 15 19 -4 13
11 Botev Ihtiman 10 14 13 +1 15
12 Levski Sofia II 11 12 14 -2 12
13 Natsional Sofia 11 12 20 -8 7
14 Chavdar Etropole 11 12 28 -16 10
15 Balkan Botevgrad 11 10 10 0 19
16 Kyustendil 10 10 16 -6 9
17 Pirin Razlog 11 9 26 -17 7
18 CSKA Sofia III 10 8 8 0 12
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest Predictions