Botev Ihtiman vs Natsional Sofia Statistics & Analysis

Botev Ihtiman

Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00

3 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 52%

Natsional Sofia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Botev Ihtiman Botev Ihtiman ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7449352

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Botev Ihtiman win · Botev Ihtiman 3–2 Natsional Sofia

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Third League - Southwest
Fixture: Botev Ihtiman vs Natsional Sofia
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Botev Ihtiman 1.34 — Natsional Sofia 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bansko	4	3	1	0	10
2	Strumska Slava	4	3	1	0	10
3	Oborishte	4	2	2	0	8
4	FK Minyor Pernik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belasitsa	4	2	1	1	7
6	Septemvri Simitli	4	2	1	1	7
7	Septemvri Sofia II	4	2	1	1	7
8	Slivnishki geroy	4	2	0	2	6
9	Botev Ihtiman	4	2	0	2	6
10	Kostinbrod	4	2	0	2	6
11	Balkan Botevgrad	4	2	0	2	6
12	CSKA Sofia III	4	0	4	0	4
13	Levski Sofia II	4	1	1	2	4
14	Chavdar Etropole	4	1	1	2	4
15	Kyustendil	4	1	1	2	4
16	Slavia Sofia II	4	1	0	3	3
17	Natsional Sofia	4	0	1	3	1
18	Pirin Razlog	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bansko	4	10	4	+6	10
2	Belasitsa	4	10	8	+2	7
3	Oborishte	4	9	5	+4	8
4	Strumska Slava	4	7	1	+6	10
5	FK Minyor Pernik	4	6	3	+3	7
6	Septemvri Simitli	4	6	5	+1	7
7	Slivnishki geroy	4	6	6	0	6
8	Levski Sofia II	4	6	7	-1	4
9	Chavdar Etropole	4	6	8	-2	4
10	Septemvri Sofia II	4	5	4	+1	7
11	Botev Ihtiman	4	5	5	0	6
12	Kostinbrod	4	4	4	0	6
13	Kyustendil	4	4	6	-2	4
14	Pirin Razlog	4	4	13	-9	0
15	Balkan Botevgrad	4	3	4	-1	6
16	Natsional Sofia	4	3	9	-6	1
17	CSKA Sofia III	4	2	2	0	4
18	Slavia Sofia II	4	2	4	-2	3