Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest / Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil

Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil Statistics & Analysis

Natsional Sofia Natsional Sofia
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 85%
Kyustendil Kyustendil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Natsional Sofia Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6150263

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Natsional Sofia 1–1 Kyustendil
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Third League - Southwest
  • Fixture: Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Natsional Sofia 1.36 — Kyustendil 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest Third League - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oborishte 8 5 3 0 18
2 FK Minyor Pernik 8 5 2 1 17
3 Strumska Slava 8 5 1 2 16
4 Bansko 8 5 1 2 16
5 Botev Ihtiman 8 5 0 3 15
6 Kostinbrod 8 5 0 3 15
7 Septemvri Sofia II 7 4 1 2 13
8 Belasitsa 8 3 1 4 10
9 Slivnishki geroy 8 3 1 4 10
10 Balkan Botevgrad 8 3 1 4 10
11 Slavia Sofia II 8 3 0 5 9
12 Septemvri Simitli 8 2 3 3 9
13 CSKA Sofia III 7 1 5 1 8
14 Levski Sofia II 8 2 2 4 8
15 Kyustendil 8 2 2 4 8
16 Pirin Razlog 8 2 1 5 7
17 Natsional Sofia 8 1 3 4 6
18 Chavdar Etropole 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oborishte 8 17 7 +10 18
2 Strumska Slava 8 17 9 +8 16
3 Bansko 8 17 13 +4 16
4 FK Minyor Pernik 8 15 5 +10 17
5 Botev Ihtiman 8 14 10 +4 15
6 Belasitsa 8 14 16 -2 10
7 Slivnishki geroy 8 12 15 -3 10
8 Septemvri Sofia II 7 11 7 +4 13
9 Kostinbrod 8 11 8 +3 15
10 Septemvri Simitli 8 11 14 -3 9
11 Natsional Sofia 8 11 16 -5 6
12 Levski Sofia II 8 10 11 -1 8
13 Slavia Sofia II 8 9 9 0 9
14 Chavdar Etropole 8 9 22 -13 4
15 Kyustendil 8 8 11 -3 8
16 Pirin Razlog 8 7 17 -10 7
17 CSKA Sofia III 7 6 6 0 8
18 Balkan Botevgrad 8 6 9 -3 10