Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest / Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II Statistics & Analysis

Slavia Sofia II Slavia Sofia II
Aug 01, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 64%
Levski Sofia II Levski Sofia II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Slavia Sofia II Slavia Sofia II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2120689

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slavia Sofia II win · Slavia Sofia II 1–0 Levski Sofia II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Third League - Southwest
  • Fixture: Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Sofia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Slavia Sofia II 1.49 — Levski Sofia II 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest Third League - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Strumska Slava 7 5 1 1 16
2 Oborishte 7 4 3 0 15
3 Botev Ihtiman 7 5 0 2 15
4 FK Minyor Pernik 7 4 2 1 14
5 Septemvri Sofia II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Bansko 7 4 1 2 13
7 Kostinbrod 7 4 0 3 12
8 Belasitsa 7 3 1 3 10
9 Slavia Sofia II 7 3 0 4 9
10 Septemvri Simitli 7 2 3 2 9
11 Slivnishki geroy 7 3 0 4 9
12 Balkan Botevgrad 7 3 0 4 9
13 CSKA Sofia III 7 1 5 1 8
14 Kyustendil 7 2 2 3 8
15 Levski Sofia II 7 1 2 4 5
16 Chavdar Etropole 7 1 1 5 4
17 Pirin Razlog 7 1 1 5 4
18 Natsional Sofia 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strumska Slava 7 15 6 +9 16
2 Oborishte 7 14 5 +9 15
3 Botev Ihtiman 7 14 9 +5 15
4 Bansko 7 14 12 +2 13
5 Belasitsa 7 14 15 -1 10
6 FK Minyor Pernik 7 13 5 +8 14
7 Septemvri Sofia II 7 11 7 +4 13
8 Kostinbrod 7 10 8 +2 12
9 Septemvri Simitli 7 10 11 -1 9
10 Slivnishki geroy 7 10 13 -3 9
11 Slavia Sofia II 7 9 7 +2 9
12 Natsional Sofia 7 9 16 -7 3
13 Kyustendil 7 8 9 -1 8
14 Chavdar Etropole 7 8 19 -11 4
15 Levski Sofia II 7 7 10 -3 5
16 CSKA Sofia III 7 6 6 0 8
17 Pirin Razlog 7 6 17 -11 4
18 Balkan Botevgrad 7 4 7 -3 9