Statistics / Football / Cyprus. 1. Division / AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou

AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou Statistics & Analysis

AEL AEL
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.47
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 83%
Omonia 29is Maiou Omonia 29is Maiou
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AEL AEL ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13230413

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AEL win · AEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): AEL 1.47 — Omonia 29is Maiou 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +10.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AEK Larnaca 5 4 0 1 12
2 AEL 5 4 0 1 12
3 Omonia Nicosia 5 3 2 0 11
4 Pafos 5 3 1 1 10
5 Apollon Limassol 5 2 3 0 9
6 Aris 5 2 2 1 8
7 Apoel Nicosia 5 2 1 2 7
8 Omonia Aradippou 5 1 3 1 6
9 Omonia 29is Maiou 5 1 2 2 5
10 Olympiakos 5 0 4 1 4
11 Nea Salamis 5 1 1 3 4
12 Karmiotissa 5 0 3 2 3
13 Anorthosis 5 1 0 4 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Apoel Nicosia 5 12 8 +4 7
2 Omonia Nicosia 5 11 2 +9 11
3 AEK Larnaca 5 10 4 +6 12
4 Apollon Limassol 5 10 6 +4 9
5 Omonia 29is Maiou 5 10 9 +1 5
6 Nea Salamis 5 9 11 -2 4
7 AEL 5 8 8 0 12
8 Olympiakos 5 8 9 -1 4
9 Pafos 5 7 3 +4 10
10 Aris 5 6 7 -1 8
11 Omonia Aradippou 5 4 4 0 6
12 Anorthosis 5 4 12 -8 3
13 Karmiotissa 5 3 9 -6 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 5 3 13 -10 0
1. Division Cyprus. 1. Division Predictions