Statistics / Football / Cyprus. 1. Division / AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou Statistics & Analysis

AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Oct 12, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 64%
Omonia Aradippou Omonia Aradippou
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13669460

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AEK Larnaca win · AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): AEK Larnaca 1.44 — Omonia Aradippou 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AEK Larnaca 5 4 0 1 12
2 AEL 5 4 0 1 12
3 Omonia Nicosia 5 3 2 0 11
4 Pafos 5 3 1 1 10
5 Apollon Limassol 5 2 3 0 9
6 Aris 5 2 2 1 8
7 Apoel Nicosia 5 2 1 2 7
8 Omonia Aradippou 5 1 3 1 6
9 Omonia 29is Maiou 5 1 2 2 5
10 Olympiakos 5 0 4 1 4
11 Nea Salamis 5 1 1 3 4
12 Karmiotissa 5 0 3 2 3
13 Anorthosis 5 1 0 4 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Apoel Nicosia 5 12 8 +4 7
2 Omonia Nicosia 5 11 2 +9 11
3 AEK Larnaca 5 10 4 +6 12
4 Apollon Limassol 5 10 6 +4 9
5 Omonia 29is Maiou 5 10 9 +1 5
6 Nea Salamis 5 9 11 -2 4
7 AEL 5 8 8 0 12
8 Olympiakos 5 8 9 -1 4
9 Pafos 5 7 3 +4 10
10 Aris 5 6 7 -1 8
11 Omonia Aradippou 5 4 4 0 6
12 Anorthosis 5 4 12 -8 3
13 Karmiotissa 5 3 9 -6 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 5 3 13 -10 0
1. Division Cyprus. 1. Division Predictions