Statistics / Football / Cyprus. 1. Division / Pafos vs AEL

Pafos vs AEL Statistics & Analysis

Pafos Pafos
Sep 18, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.77
2 1.02
xG Accuracy: 47%
AEL AEL
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pafos AEL ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8210897

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AEL win · Pafos 0–2 AEL
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), AEL (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on AEL (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pafos (1X2) 53.5 64.3 -10.8
Draw (1X2) 26.3 20.9 +5.3
AEL (1X2) 20.2 14.8 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 52.8 56.5 -3.7
Under 2.5 goals 47.2 43.5 +3.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.2% on AEL (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.8%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pafos (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.42 4.42 0.0
AEL (1X2) 6.28 6.28 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.17 2.17 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Pafos vs AEL
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.5% · Draw 26.3% · Away 20.2%
  • xG (showing): Pafos 1.77 — AEL 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 47.2% · Implied: 43.4% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AEK Larnaca 4 3 0 1 9
2 AEL 4 3 0 1 9
3 Omonia Nicosia 4 2 2 0 8
4 Pafos 4 2 1 1 7
5 Apollon Limassol 4 1 3 0 6
6 Omonia Aradippou 4 1 3 0 6
7 Omonia 29is Maiou 4 1 2 1 5
8 Aris 4 1 2 1 5
9 Apoel Nicosia 4 1 1 2 4
10 Olympiakos 4 0 4 0 4
11 Nea Salamis 4 1 1 2 4
12 Karmiotissa 4 0 3 1 3
13 Anorthosis 4 1 0 3 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Apoel Nicosia 4 10 7 +3 4
2 AEK Larnaca 4 9 4 +5 9
3 Omonia 29is Maiou 4 9 7 +2 5
4 Omonia Nicosia 4 8 2 +6 8
5 Nea Salamis 4 8 9 -1 4
6 Apollon Limassol 4 7 5 +2 6
7 Olympiakos 4 7 7 0 4
8 AEL 4 6 7 -1 9
9 Pafos 4 4 2 +2 7
10 Omonia Aradippou 4 4 3 +1 6
11 Aris 4 4 6 -2 5
12 Karmiotissa 4 3 6 -3 3
13 Anorthosis 4 3 9 -6 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 4 2 10 -8 0