Statistics / Football / Cyprus. 1. Division / Anorthosis vs Apoel Nicosia

Anorthosis vs Apoel Nicosia Statistics & Analysis

Anorthosis Anorthosis
Sep 12, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.49
1 0.96
xG Accuracy: 86%
Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Anorthosis Anorthosis ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7463705

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Anorthosis win · Anorthosis 2–1 Apoel Nicosia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Anorthosis (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Anorthosis (1X2) by about 26.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Anorthosis (1X2) 47.9 21.5 +26.4
Draw (1X2) 29.4 26.7 +2.7
Apoel Nicosia (1X2) 22.8 51.8 -29.1
Over 2.5 goals 44.3 47.8 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 55.7 52.2 +3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 47.9% on Anorthosis (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.5%. The difference — about 26.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Anorthosis (1X2) 4.31 4.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.48 3.48 0.0
Apoel Nicosia (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Anorthosis vs Apoel Nicosia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 22.8%
  • xG (showing): Anorthosis 1.49 — Apoel Nicosia 0.96 (total xG ≈ 2.45)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Anorthosis
  • Model: 47.9% · Implied: 21.5% · Probability edge: +26.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.4% · No 50.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AEK Larnaca 4 3 0 1 9
2 AEL 4 3 0 1 9
3 Omonia Nicosia 4 2 2 0 8
4 Pafos 4 2 1 1 7
5 Apollon Limassol 4 1 3 0 6
6 Omonia Aradippou 4 1 3 0 6
7 Omonia 29is Maiou 4 1 2 1 5
8 Aris 4 1 2 1 5
9 Apoel Nicosia 4 1 1 2 4
10 Olympiakos 4 0 4 0 4
11 Nea Salamis 4 1 1 2 4
12 Karmiotissa 4 0 3 1 3
13 Anorthosis 4 1 0 3 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Apoel Nicosia 4 10 7 +3 4
2 AEK Larnaca 4 9 4 +5 9
3 Omonia 29is Maiou 4 9 7 +2 5
4 Omonia Nicosia 4 8 2 +6 8
5 Nea Salamis 4 8 9 -1 4
6 Apollon Limassol 4 7 5 +2 6
7 Olympiakos 4 7 7 0 4
8 AEL 4 6 7 -1 9
9 Pafos 4 4 2 +2 7
10 Omonia Aradippou 4 4 3 +1 6
11 Aris 4 4 6 -2 5
12 Karmiotissa 4 3 6 -3 3
13 Anorthosis 4 3 9 -6 3
14 Digenis Ypsonas 4 2 10 -8 0