Home United vs Young Lions Statistics & Analysis

Home United

Oct 11, 2026 - 11:30

6 1.68

1 0.92

xG Accuracy: 30%

Young Lions

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Home United Home United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13196880

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Home United win · Home United 6–1 Young Lions

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Home United vs Young Lions
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 53.8% · Draw 27.2% · Away 19.1%
xG (showing): Home United 1.68 — Young Lions 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Albirex Niigata S	2	2	0	0	6
2	Geylang International	2	2	0	0	6
3	Tampines Rovers	1	1	0	0	3
4	Tanjong Pagar	2	1	0	1	3
5	Home United	1	0	1	0	1
6	Hougang United	2	0	1	1	1
7	Balestier Khalsa	2	0	0	2	0
8	Young Lions	2	0	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Albirex Niigata S	2	7	0	+7	6
2	Geylang International	2	6	1	+5	6
3	Tanjong Pagar	2	4	4	0	3
4	Balestier Khalsa	2	3	6	-3	0
5	Tampines Rovers	1	2	0	+2	3
6	Home United	1	2	2	0	1
7	Hougang United	2	2	5	-3	1
8	Young Lions	2	1	9	-8	0