Statistics / Football / Singapore. Premier League / Balestier Khalsa vs Tanjong Pagar

Balestier Khalsa vs Tanjong Pagar Statistics & Analysis

Balestier Khalsa Balestier Khalsa
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:30
3 1.54
4 1.06
xG Accuracy: 30%
Tanjong Pagar Tanjong Pagar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Balestier Khalsa Tanjong Pagar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662336

Closing Odds 4.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Tanjong Pagar win · Balestier Khalsa 3–4 Tanjong Pagar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 10.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Balestier Khalsa (1X2) 46.8 55.9 -9.1
Draw (1X2) 28.7 18.4 +10.3
Tanjong Pagar (1X2) 24.6 25.7 -1.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.4%. The difference — about 10.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Balestier Khalsa (1X2) 1.64 1.64 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.98 4.98 0.0
Tanjong Pagar (1X2) 3.56 3.56 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Balestier Khalsa vs Tanjong Pagar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.6%
  • xG (showing): Balestier Khalsa 1.54 — Tanjong Pagar 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.0% · Probability edge: +24.8 pts · Est. EV: +96.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Albirex Niigata S 2 2 0 0 6
2 Geylang International 2 2 0 0 6
3 Tampines Rovers 1 1 0 0 3
4 Tanjong Pagar 2 1 0 1 3
5 Home United 1 0 1 0 1
6 Hougang United 2 0 1 1 1
7 Balestier Khalsa 2 0 0 2 0
8 Young Lions 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Albirex Niigata S 2 7 0 +7 6
2 Geylang International 2 6 1 +5 6
3 Tanjong Pagar 2 4 4 0 3
4 Balestier Khalsa 2 3 6 -3 0
5 Tampines Rovers 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Home United 1 2 2 0 1
7 Hougang United 2 2 5 -3 1
8 Young Lions 2 1 9 -8 0