Puebla W vs Querétaro W Statistics & Analysis

Puebla W

Sep 13, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.31

6 1.29

xG Accuracy: 23%

Querétaro W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Puebla W Querétaro W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457101

Closing Odds 2.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Querétaro W win · Puebla W 2–6 Querétaro W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Puebla W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Puebla W (1X2)	35.6	34.0	+1.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.3	+4.4
Querétaro W (1X2)	34.7	40.7	-6.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.8	-14.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.2	+14.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.2%. The difference — about 14.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Puebla W (1X2)	2.73	2.73
Draw (1X2)	3.67	3.67
Querétaro W (1X2)	2.28	2.28
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.52	2.52

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga MX Femenil
Fixture: Puebla W vs Querétaro W
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Puebla W 1.31 — Querétaro W 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	América W	7	7	0	0	21
2	Tigres UANL W	7	6	0	1	18
3	Monterrey W	7	6	0	1	18
4	Juárez W	7	5	0	2	15
5	Toluca W	6	4	1	1	13
6	Guadalajara W	7	4	0	3	12
7	Atlético San Luis W	7	4	0	3	12
8	Cruz Azul W	7	4	0	3	12
9	León W	6	3	0	3	9
10	Pumas UNAM W	7	3	0	4	9
11	Santos Laguna W	7	3	0	4	9
12	Atlas W	7	2	2	3	8
13	Pachuca W	6	2	1	3	7
14	Tijuana W	6	2	0	4	6
15	Querétaro W	7	2	0	5	6
16	Atlante W	7	1	0	6	3
17	Puebla W	7	1	0	6	3
18	Necaxa W	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	7	35	5	+30	21
2	Monterrey W	7	23	9	+14	18
3	Tigres UANL W	7	21	6	+15	18
4	Atlético San Luis W	7	19	14	+5	12
5	Guadalajara W	7	17	11	+6	12
6	Pumas UNAM W	7	15	14	+1	9
7	León W	6	14	10	+4	9
8	Puebla W	7	12	34	-22	3
9	Toluca W	6	11	8	+3	13
10	Tijuana W	6	11	11	0	6
11	Cruz Azul W	7	11	18	-7	12
12	Santos Laguna W	7	9	16	-7	9
13	Querétaro W	7	9	18	-9	6
14	Pachuca W	6	8	9	-1	7
15	Juárez W	7	7	5	+2	15
16	Atlas W	7	7	15	-8	8
17	Atlante W	7	4	11	-7	3
18	Necaxa W	7	3	22	-19	0