Juárez W vs Necaxa W Statistics & Analysis

Juárez W

Sep 13, 2026 - 01:10

1 1.62

0 0.98

xG Accuracy: 64%

Necaxa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Juárez W Juárez W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419088

Closing Odds 1.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Juárez W win · Juárez W 1–0 Necaxa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Necaxa W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 22.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Juárez W (1X2)	50.8	91.4	-40.6
Draw (1X2)	27.9	5.8	+22.1
Necaxa W (1X2)	21.3	2.9	+18.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.8%. The difference — about 22.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Juárez W (1X2)	1.03	1.03
Draw (1X2)	16.25	16.25
Necaxa W (1X2)	33.07	33.07

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Juárez W; market prices Juárez W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Juárez W 1.62 xG vs Necaxa W 0.98 → Juárez W 50.8%
Market: Juárez W ~91.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.6% · No 48.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monterrey W	9	8	0	1	24
2	América W	8	7	1	0	22
3	Tigres UANL W	8	7	0	1	21
4	Juárez W	9	7	0	2	21
5	Guadalajara W	9	6	0	3	18
6	Toluca W	8	5	1	2	16
7	Atlético San Luis W	8	5	0	3	15
8	Pumas UNAM W	8	4	0	4	12
9	León W	8	4	0	4	12
10	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	12
11	Santos Laguna W	9	4	0	5	12
12	Cruz Azul W	9	4	0	5	12
13	Pachuca W	9	3	1	5	10
14	Atlante W	8	2	0	6	6
15	Querétaro W	9	2	0	7	6
16	Tijuana W	9	2	0	7	6
17	Puebla W	9	1	0	8	3
18	Necaxa W	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	8	37	7	+30	22
2	Monterrey W	9	35	10	+25	24
3	Tigres UANL W	8	28	8	+20	21
4	Atlético San Luis W	8	21	15	+6	15
5	Guadalajara W	9	20	11	+9	18
6	Toluca W	8	19	15	+4	16
7	Pumas UNAM W	8	17	14	+3	12
8	León W	8	15	12	+3	12
9	Juárez W	9	14	6	+8	21
10	Pachuca W	9	13	13	0	10
11	Puebla W	9	13	38	-25	3
12	Santos Laguna W	9	12	20	-8	12
13	Tijuana W	9	12	24	-12	6
14	Cruz Azul W	9	11	21	-10	12
15	Atlas W	9	10	17	-7	12
16	Querétaro W	9	10	21	-11	6
17	Atlante W	8	6	12	-6	6
18	Necaxa W	8	3	32	-29	0