León W vs Puebla W Statistics & Analysis

León W

Sep 08, 2026 - 01:06

5 1.53

2 1.07

xG Accuracy: 30%

Puebla W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 León W León W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6577967

Closing Odds 1.19

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result León W win · León W 5–2 Puebla W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Puebla W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Puebla W (1X2) by about 16.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
León W (1X2)	46.3	79.0	-32.7
Draw (1X2)	28.7	12.6	+16.1
Puebla W (1X2)	24.9	8.4	+16.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.9% on Puebla W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.4%. The difference — about 16.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
León W (1X2)	1.19	1.19
Draw (1X2)	7.46	7.46
Puebla W (1X2)	11.15	11.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours León W; market prices León W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: León W 1.53 xG vs Puebla W 1.07 → León W 46.3%
Market: León W ~79.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monterrey W	9	8	0	1	24
2	América W	8	7	1	0	22
3	Tigres UANL W	8	7	0	1	21
4	Juárez W	9	7	0	2	21
5	Guadalajara W	9	6	0	3	18
6	Toluca W	8	5	1	2	16
7	Atlético San Luis W	8	5	0	3	15
8	Pumas UNAM W	8	4	0	4	12
9	León W	8	4	0	4	12
10	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	12
11	Santos Laguna W	9	4	0	5	12
12	Cruz Azul W	9	4	0	5	12
13	Pachuca W	9	3	1	5	10
14	Atlante W	8	2	0	6	6
15	Querétaro W	9	2	0	7	6
16	Tijuana W	9	2	0	7	6
17	Puebla W	9	1	0	8	3
18	Necaxa W	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	8	37	7	+30	22
2	Monterrey W	9	35	10	+25	24
3	Tigres UANL W	8	28	8	+20	21
4	Atlético San Luis W	8	21	15	+6	15
5	Guadalajara W	9	20	11	+9	18
6	Toluca W	8	19	15	+4	16
7	Pumas UNAM W	8	17	14	+3	12
8	León W	8	15	12	+3	12
9	Juárez W	9	14	6	+8	21
10	Pachuca W	9	13	13	0	10
11	Puebla W	9	13	38	-25	3
12	Santos Laguna W	9	12	20	-8	12
13	Tijuana W	9	12	24	-12	6
14	Cruz Azul W	9	11	21	-10	12
15	Atlas W	9	10	17	-7	12
16	Querétaro W	9	10	21	-11	6
17	Atlante W	8	6	12	-6	6
18	Necaxa W	8	3	32	-29	0