Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX Femenil / Querétaro W vs Cruz Azul W

Querétaro W vs Cruz Azul W Statistics & Analysis

Querétaro W Querétaro W
Sep 06, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.04
2 1.56
xG Accuracy: 67%
Cruz Azul W Cruz Azul W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cruz Azul W Cruz Azul W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6374954

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Cruz Azul W win · Querétaro W 0–2 Cruz Azul W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Querétaro W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Querétaro W (1X2) 23.7 13.1 +10.6
Draw (1X2) 28.5 17.6 +10.9
Cruz Azul W (1X2) 47.8 69.3 -21.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 68.0 -19.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.0 +19.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Querétaro W (1X2) 7.08 7.08 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.28 5.28 0.0
Cruz Azul W (1X2) 1.34 1.34 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.91 2.91 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga MX Femenil
  • Fixture: Querétaro W vs Cruz Azul W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.7% · Draw 28.5% · Away 47.8%
  • xG (showing): Querétaro W 1.04 — Cruz Azul W 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil Liga MX Femenil — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 América W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Tigres UANL W 7 6 0 1 18
3 Monterrey W 7 6 0 1 18
4 Juárez W 7 5 0 2 15
5 Toluca W 6 4 1 1 13
6 Guadalajara W 7 4 0 3 12
7 Atlético San Luis W 7 4 0 3 12
8 Cruz Azul W 7 4 0 3 12
9 León W 6 3 0 3 9
10 Pumas UNAM W 7 3 0 4 9
11 Santos Laguna W 7 3 0 4 9
12 Atlas W 7 2 2 3 8
13 Pachuca W 6 2 1 3 7
14 Tijuana W 6 2 0 4 6
15 Querétaro W 7 2 0 5 6
16 Atlante W 7 1 0 6 3
17 Puebla W 7 1 0 6 3
18 Necaxa W 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 América W 7 35 5 +30 21
2 Monterrey W 7 23 9 +14 18
3 Tigres UANL W 7 21 6 +15 18
4 Atlético San Luis W 7 19 14 +5 12
5 Guadalajara W 7 17 11 +6 12
6 Pumas UNAM W 7 15 14 +1 9
7 León W 6 14 10 +4 9
8 Puebla W 7 12 34 -22 3
9 Toluca W 6 11 8 +3 13
10 Tijuana W 6 11 11 0 6
11 Cruz Azul W 7 11 18 -7 12
12 Santos Laguna W 7 9 16 -7 9
13 Querétaro W 7 9 18 -9 6
14 Pachuca W 6 8 9 -1 7
15 Juárez W 7 7 5 +2 15
16 Atlas W 7 7 15 -8 8
17 Atlante W 7 4 11 -7 3
18 Necaxa W 7 3 22 -19 0
Liga MX Femenil Mexico. Liga MX Femenil Predictions