Puebla W vs Necaxa W Statistics & Analysis

Puebla W

Aug 30, 2026 - 18:00

4 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 46%

Necaxa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Puebla W Puebla W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5303139

Closing Odds 1.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Puebla W win · Puebla W 4–1 Necaxa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Necaxa W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Necaxa W (1X2) by about 8.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Puebla W (1X2)	39.0	53.4	-14.4
Draw (1X2)	29.5	23.6	+5.9
Necaxa W (1X2)	31.5	22.9	+8.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.0	-7.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.0	+7.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Necaxa W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 8.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Puebla W (1X2)	1.74	1.74
Draw (1X2)	3.93	3.93
Necaxa W (1X2)	4.05	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	2.14	2.14

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga MX Femenil
Fixture: Puebla W vs Necaxa W
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Puebla W 1.38 — Necaxa W 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +21.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	América W	7	7	0	0	21
2	Tigres UANL W	7	6	0	1	18
3	Monterrey W	7	6	0	1	18
4	Juárez W	7	5	0	2	15
5	Toluca W	6	4	1	1	13
6	Guadalajara W	7	4	0	3	12
7	Atlético San Luis W	7	4	0	3	12
8	Cruz Azul W	7	4	0	3	12
9	León W	6	3	0	3	9
10	Pumas UNAM W	7	3	0	4	9
11	Santos Laguna W	7	3	0	4	9
12	Atlas W	7	2	2	3	8
13	Pachuca W	6	2	1	3	7
14	Tijuana W	6	2	0	4	6
15	Querétaro W	7	2	0	5	6
16	Atlante W	7	1	0	6	3
17	Puebla W	7	1	0	6	3
18	Necaxa W	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	7	35	5	+30	21
2	Monterrey W	7	23	9	+14	18
3	Tigres UANL W	7	21	6	+15	18
4	Atlético San Luis W	7	19	14	+5	12
5	Guadalajara W	7	17	11	+6	12
6	Pumas UNAM W	7	15	14	+1	9
7	León W	6	14	10	+4	9
8	Puebla W	7	12	34	-22	3
9	Toluca W	6	11	8	+3	13
10	Tijuana W	6	11	11	0	6
11	Cruz Azul W	7	11	18	-7	12
12	Santos Laguna W	7	9	16	-7	9
13	Querétaro W	7	9	18	-9	6
14	Pachuca W	6	8	9	-1	7
15	Juárez W	7	7	5	+2	15
16	Atlas W	7	7	15	-8	8
17	Atlante W	7	4	11	-7	3
18	Necaxa W	7	3	22	-19	0