Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX Femenil / Puebla W vs Guadalajara W

Puebla W vs Guadalajara W Statistics & Analysis

Puebla W Puebla W
Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.00
4 1.60
xG Accuracy: 52%
Guadalajara W Guadalajara W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guadalajara W Guadalajara W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2967673

Closing Odds 1.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Guadalajara W win · Puebla W 1–4 Guadalajara W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Puebla W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Puebla W (1X2) 22.1 6.7 +15.4
Draw (1X2) 28.1 13.2 +14.9
Guadalajara W (1X2) 49.8 80.0 -30.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.2 -16.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.8 +16.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Puebla W (1X2) 13.77 13.77 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.01 7.01 0.0
Guadalajara W (1X2) 1.16 1.16 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Guadalajara W; market prices Guadalajara W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Puebla W 1.00 xG vs Guadalajara W 1.60 → Guadalajara W 49.8%
  • Market: Guadalajara W ~80.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil Liga MX Femenil — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 América W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Tigres UANL W 7 6 0 1 18
3 Monterrey W 7 6 0 1 18
4 Juárez W 7 5 0 2 15
5 Toluca W 6 4 1 1 13
6 Guadalajara W 7 4 0 3 12
7 Atlético San Luis W 7 4 0 3 12
8 Cruz Azul W 7 4 0 3 12
9 León W 6 3 0 3 9
10 Pumas UNAM W 7 3 0 4 9
11 Santos Laguna W 7 3 0 4 9
12 Atlas W 7 2 2 3 8
13 Pachuca W 6 2 1 3 7
14 Tijuana W 6 2 0 4 6
15 Querétaro W 7 2 0 5 6
16 Atlante W 7 1 0 6 3
17 Puebla W 7 1 0 6 3
18 Necaxa W 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 América W 7 35 5 +30 21
2 Monterrey W 7 23 9 +14 18
3 Tigres UANL W 7 21 6 +15 18
4 Atlético San Luis W 7 19 14 +5 12
5 Guadalajara W 7 17 11 +6 12
6 Pumas UNAM W 7 15 14 +1 9
7 León W 6 14 10 +4 9
8 Puebla W 7 12 34 -22 3
9 Toluca W 6 11 8 +3 13
10 Tijuana W 6 11 11 0 6
11 Cruz Azul W 7 11 18 -7 12
12 Santos Laguna W 7 9 16 -7 9
13 Querétaro W 7 9 18 -9 6
14 Pachuca W 6 8 9 -1 7
15 Juárez W 7 7 5 +2 15
16 Atlas W 7 7 15 -8 8
17 Atlante W 7 4 11 -7 3
18 Necaxa W 7 3 22 -19 0
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