Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah Statistics & Analysis

Al-Nassr

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.40

0 1.19

xG Accuracy: 46%

Al Diriyah

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Al-Nassr Al-Nassr ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703333

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al-Nassr win · Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.5% · Draw 27.4% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Al-Nassr 1.4 — Al Diriyah 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.59)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 52.1% · Over 2.5 47.9%); BTTS No (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	7	0	1	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	6	1	1	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	6	1	1	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	5	2	1	17
5	NEOM	8	5	1	2	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	5	0	3	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	3	3	2	12
8	Al Kholood	9	3	3	3	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	3	2	3	11
10	Al-Hazm	9	2	3	4	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	1	6	2	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	2	3	3	9
13	Al Shabab	8	1	4	3	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	1	4	4	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	1	3	4	6
16	Al-Fateh	9	1	3	5	6
17	Al Taawon	8	0	3	5	3
18	Abha	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	26	7	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	21	8	+13	19
3	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	20	10	+10	15
4	Al-Nassr	8	19	7	+12	19
5	NEOM	8	14	7	+7	16
6	Al-Ittihad FC	8	14	9	+5	17
7	Al Kholood	9	14	18	-4	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	8	12	12	0	12
9	Al-Hazm	9	10	13	-3	9
10	Al Shabab	8	9	11	-2	7
11	Al Riyadh	8	9	17	-8	9
12	Al-Fayha	9	8	14	-6	7
13	Al-Faisaly FC	8	8	15	-7	6
14	Al Diriyah	8	7	8	-1	11
15	Al-Fateh	9	7	17	-10	6
16	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	6	11	-5	9
17	Abha	7	5	13	-8	2
18	Al Taawon	8	3	15	-12	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	16.0	6.1	+9.9	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	16.0	6.5	+9.5	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	11.7	3.8	+7.9	19
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	6.4	2.9	+3.5	15
5	Al Kholood	9	16.2	14.4	+1.8	12
6	NEOM	8	8.4	7.0	+1.4	16
7	Al-Ittihad FC	8	9.3	8.7	+0.6	17
8	Al Shabab	8	9.1	8.5	+0.6	7
9	Al-Ettifaq	8	8.5	9.2	-0.7	12
10	Al Taawon	8	6.7	7.7	-1.0	3
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	8.6	9.8	-1.2	9
12	Al Diriyah	8	4.5	6.2	-1.7	11
13	Al-Fateh	9	7.6	11.3	-3.7	6
14	Al-Hazm	9	6.3	10.3	-4.0	9
15	Al Riyadh	8	4.9	9.2	-4.3	9
16	Abha	7	4.8	10.0	-5.2	2
17	Al-Faisaly FC	8	6.3	12.4	-6.1	6
18	Al-Fayha	9	6.5	14.0	-7.5	7