Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistics & Analysis

Al-Fateh

Oct 09, 2026 - 14:55

0 0.98

4 1.95

xG Accuracy: 44%

Al-Ahli Jeddah

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12690065

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al-Ahli Jeddah win · Al-Fateh 0–4 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 14:55:00
1X2 (model): Home 16.8% · Draw 22.6% · Away 60.6%
xG (showing): Al-Fateh 0.98 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 43.9% · Implied: 31.4% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +36.5%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	6	0	1	18
2	Al-Ittihad FC	7	5	2	0	17
3	Al-Nassr	7	5	1	1	16
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	5	1	1	16
5	NEOM	7	5	0	2	15
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4	0	3	12
7	Al Kholood	7	3	3	1	12
8	Al Diriyah	7	3	2	2	11
9	Al-Ettifaq	7	3	2	2	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	2	2	3	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	2	2	3	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	1	3	3	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	0	5	2	5
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	4
15	Al-Fateh	7	0	3	4	3
16	Al-Faisaly FC	7	0	3	4	3
17	Al Taawon	7	0	3	4	3
18	Abha	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	23	5	+18	18
2	Al-Nassr	7	16	7	+9	16
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	16	8	+8	16
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	16	10	+6	12
5	NEOM	7	13	6	+7	15
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	12	6	+6	17
7	Al Kholood	7	12	10	+2	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	11	11	0	11
9	Al Riyadh	7	8	16	-8	8
10	Al Diriyah	7	7	5	+2	11
11	Al-Hazm	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	7	11	-4	6
13	Al Shabab	7	6	11	-5	4
14	Al-Faisaly FC	7	5	13	-8	3
15	Abha	7	5	13	-8	2
16	Al-Fateh	7	4	11	-7	3
17	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	3	10	-7	5
18	Al Taawon	7	3	12	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	13.7	4.9	+8.8	18
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	14.3	6.1	+8.2	16
3	Al-Nassr	7	10.9	3.6	+7.3	16
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	6.4	2.9	+3.5	12
5	Al-Ittihad FC	7	8.1	6.4	+1.7	17
6	Al-Ettifaq	7	6.7	5.7	+1.0	11
7	Al Kholood	7	13.4	12.5	+0.9	12
8	Al Taawon	7	5.8	5.4	+0.4	3
9	NEOM	7	6.0	6.1	-0.1	15
10	Al Shabab	7	6.8	7.6	-0.8	4
11	Al Diriyah	7	4.4	5.4	-1.0	11
12	Al-Hazm	7	3.3	6.0	-2.7	8
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	4.2	7.2	-3.0	5
14	Abha	7	4.4	8.2	-3.8	2
15	Al-Fateh	7	4.9	9.1	-4.2	3
16	Al Riyadh	7	3.4	8.5	-5.1	8
17	Al-Faisaly FC	7	4.5	9.7	-5.2	3
18	Al-Fayha	7	5.0	10.8	-5.8	6