Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistics & Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC
Sep 08, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.58
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 56%
Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6580295

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Ahli Jeddah (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Ahli Jeddah (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Qadisiyah FC (1X2) 41.9 46.2 -4.3
Draw (1X2) 27.5 25.6 +1.9
Al-Ahli Jeddah (1X2) 30.7 28.2 +2.5
Over 2.5 goals 55.6 58.0 -2.4
Under 2.5 goals 44.4 42.0 +2.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.7% on Al-Ahli Jeddah (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.2%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Qadisiyah FC (1X2) 2.06 2.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.71 3.71 0.0
Al-Ahli Jeddah (1X2) 3.37 3.37 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 27.5% · Away 30.7%
  • xG (showing): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.91)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.4% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.9% · No 40.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 6 0 1 18
2 Al-Ittihad FC 7 5 2 0 17
3 Al-Nassr 7 5 1 1 16
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 5 1 1 16
5 NEOM 7 5 0 2 15
6 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4 0 3 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 11
9 Al-Ettifaq 7 3 2 2 11
10 Al-Hazm 7 2 2 3 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 1 3 3 6
13 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 0 5 2 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 4
15 Al-Fateh 7 0 3 4 3
16 Al-Faisaly FC 7 0 3 4 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 23 5 +18 18
2 Al-Nassr 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 16 8 +8 16
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 16 10 +6 12
5 NEOM 7 13 6 +7 15
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 12 6 +6 17
7 Al Kholood 7 12 10 +2 12
8 Al-Ettifaq 7 11 11 0 11
9 Al Riyadh 7 8 16 -8 8
10 Al Diriyah 7 7 5 +2 11
11 Al-Hazm 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 7 11 -4 6
13 Al Shabab 7 6 11 -5 4
14 Al-Faisaly FC 7 5 13 -8 3
15 Abha 7 5 13 -8 2
16 Al-Fateh 7 4 11 -7 3
17 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 3 10 -7 5
18 Al Taawon 7 3 12 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 13.7 4.9 +8.8 18
2 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 9.1 3.6 +5.5 16
3 Al-Nassr 7 8.4 3.0 +5.4 16
4 Al Kholood 7 10.9 7.3 +3.6 12
5 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4.2 2.4 +1.8 12
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 8.1 6.4 +1.7 17
7 Al-Ettifaq 7 6.7 5.7 +1.0 11
8 Al Diriyah 7 3.7 2.9 +0.8 11
9 Al Taawon 7 5.8 5.4 +0.4 3
10 NEOM 7 6.0 6.1 -0.1 15
11 Al Shabab 7 6.8 7.6 -0.8 4
12 Al-Fateh 7 4.5 6.9 -2.4 3
13 Al-Hazm 7 3.3 6.0 -2.7 8
14 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 4.2 7.2 -3.0 5
15 Abha 7 4.4 8.2 -3.8 2
16 Al Riyadh 7 3.4 8.5 -5.1 8
17 Al-Faisaly FC 7 4.5 9.7 -5.2 3
18 Al-Fayha 7 5.0 10.8 -5.8 6