Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon

Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Statistics & Analysis

Al-Nassr Al-Nassr
Aug 28, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.67
1 0.87
xG Accuracy: 88%
Al Taawon Al Taawon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Nassr Al-Nassr ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4941745

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al-Nassr win · Al-Nassr 2–1 Al Taawon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.86 percentage points on Al-Nassr (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 22.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Nassr (1X2) 60.7 74.8 -14.1
Draw (1X2) 23.6 14.8 +8.7
Al Taawon (1X2) 15.8 10.4 +5.3
Over 2.5 goals 46.6 68.8 -22.2
Under 2.5 goals 53.4 31.2 +22.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 53.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.2%. The difference — about 22.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Nassr (1X2) 1.3 1.26 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 6.03 6.35 -0.9
Al Taawon (1X2) 8.31 9.04 -1.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.37 +1.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.94 3.02 -1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 60.7% · Draw 23.6% · Away 15.8%
  • xG (showing): Al-Nassr 1.67 — Al Taawon 0.87 (total xG ≈ 2.54)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.4% · Implied: 30.8% · Probability edge: +22.6 pts · Est. EV: +68.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.7% · No 51.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 6 0 1 18
2 Al-Ittihad FC 7 5 2 0 17
3 Al-Nassr 7 5 1 1 16
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 5 1 1 16
5 NEOM 7 5 0 2 15
6 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4 0 3 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 11
9 Al-Ettifaq 7 3 2 2 11
10 Al-Hazm 7 2 2 3 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 1 3 3 6
13 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 0 5 2 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 4
15 Al-Fateh 7 0 3 4 3
16 Al-Faisaly FC 7 0 3 4 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 23 5 +18 18
2 Al-Nassr 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 16 8 +8 16
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 16 10 +6 12
5 NEOM 7 13 6 +7 15
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 12 6 +6 17
7 Al Kholood 7 12 10 +2 12
8 Al-Ettifaq 7 11 11 0 11
9 Al Riyadh 7 8 16 -8 8
10 Al Diriyah 7 7 5 +2 11
11 Al-Hazm 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 7 11 -4 6
13 Al Shabab 7 6 11 -5 4
14 Al-Faisaly FC 7 5 13 -8 3
15 Abha 7 5 13 -8 2
16 Al-Fateh 7 4 11 -7 3
17 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 3 10 -7 5
18 Al Taawon 7 3 12 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 13.7 4.9 +8.8 18
2 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 9.1 3.6 +5.5 16
3 Al-Nassr 7 8.4 3.0 +5.4 16
4 Al Kholood 7 10.9 7.3 +3.6 12
5 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4.2 2.4 +1.8 12
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 8.1 6.4 +1.7 17
7 Al-Ettifaq 7 6.7 5.7 +1.0 11
8 Al Diriyah 7 3.7 2.9 +0.8 11
9 Al Taawon 7 5.8 5.4 +0.4 3
10 NEOM 7 6.0 6.1 -0.1 15
11 Al Shabab 7 6.8 7.6 -0.8 4
12 Al-Fateh 7 4.5 6.9 -2.4 3
13 Al-Hazm 7 3.3 6.0 -2.7 8
14 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 4.2 7.2 -3.0 5
15 Abha 7 4.4 8.2 -3.8 2
16 Al Riyadh 7 3.4 8.5 -5.1 8
17 Al-Faisaly FC 7 4.5 9.7 -5.2 3
18 Al-Fayha 7 5.0 10.8 -5.8 6