Chiangmai United vs Kasetsart FC Statistics & Analysis

Chiangmai United

Oct 10, 2026 - 12:30

2 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 59%

Kasetsart FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Chiangmai United Chiangmai United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13204763

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Chiangmai United win · Chiangmai United 2–0 Kasetsart FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Thai League 2
Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Kasetsart FC
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Chiangmai United 1.33 — Kasetsart FC 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	3	0	1	9
2	Uttaradit	4	2	2	0	8
3	Muang Loei United	4	2	1	1	7
4	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	2	1	1	7
5	Chainat	4	2	1	1	7
6	Muangthong United	4	2	1	1	7
7	Satun	4	2	0	2	6
8	Kanchanaburi	4	1	3	0	6
9	Chiangmai United	4	2	0	2	6
10	Police Tero	4	2	0	2	6
11	Songkhla	4	1	2	1	5
12	Chanthaburi	4	1	1	2	4
13	Nakhon Pathom	4	0	4	0	4
14	Phrae United	4	1	1	2	4
15	Esan Pattaya	4	1	1	2	4
16	Mahasarakham United	4	0	3	1	3
17	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	4	0	2	2	2
18	Kasetsart FC	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Satun	4	11	9	+2	6
2	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	9	7	+2	7
3	Uttaradit	4	8	5	+3	8
4	Khon Kaen United	4	7	3	+4	9
5	Muang Loei United	4	6	2	+4	7
6	Kanchanaburi	4	6	4	+2	6
7	Songkhla	4	6	5	+1	5
8	Chiangmai United	4	5	4	+1	6
9	Chainat	4	5	5	0	7
10	Chanthaburi	4	5	5	0	4
11	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	4	5	7	-2	2
12	Police Tero	4	4	5	-1	6
13	Phrae United	4	4	5	-1	4
14	Nakhon Pathom	4	3	3	0	4
15	Muangthong United	4	3	4	-1	7
16	Mahasarakham United	4	3	6	-3	3
17	Esan Pattaya	4	1	6	-5	4
18	Kasetsart FC	4	0	6	-6	1