Statistics / Football / Thailand. Thai League 2 / Uttaradit vs Chanthaburi

Uttaradit vs Chanthaburi Statistics & Analysis

Uttaradit Uttaradit
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 30%
Chanthaburi Chanthaburi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uttaradit Uttaradit ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8666646

Closing Odds 3.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Uttaradit win · Uttaradit 4–3 Chanthaburi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Uttaradit (1X2) 37.0 37.1 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.8 +0.8
Chanthaburi (1X2) 33.4 34.1 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.6 +1.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.4 -1.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.6%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Uttaradit (1X2) 2.47 2.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Chanthaburi (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Thai League 2
  • Fixture: Uttaradit vs Chanthaburi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Uttaradit 1.34 — Chanthaburi 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 2 Thai League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khon Kaen United 4 3 0 1 9
2 Uttaradit 4 2 2 0 8
3 Muang Loei United 4 2 1 1 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 7
5 Chainat 4 2 1 1 7
6 Muangthong United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Satun 4 2 0 2 6
8 Kanchanaburi 4 1 3 0 6
9 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 6
10 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 6
11 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 5
12 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 4
13 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 4
14 Phrae United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Esan Pattaya 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mahasarakham United 4 0 3 1 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 2
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Satun 4 11 9 +2 6
2 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 9 7 +2 7
3 Uttaradit 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Khon Kaen United 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Muang Loei United 4 6 2 +4 7
6 Kanchanaburi 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Songkhla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Chiangmai United 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Chainat 4 5 5 0 7
10 Chanthaburi 4 5 5 0 4
11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 5 7 -2 2
12 Police Tero 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Phrae United 4 4 5 -1 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 3 3 0 4
15 Muangthong United 4 3 4 -1 7
16 Mahasarakham United 4 3 6 -3 3
17 Esan Pattaya 4 1 6 -5 4
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 6 -6 1