Statistics / Football / Thailand. Thai League 2 / Nakhon Pathom vs Kanchanaburi

Nakhon Pathom vs Kanchanaburi Statistics & Analysis

Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom
Sep 16, 2026 - 11:30
1 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 85%
Kanchanaburi Kanchanaburi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kanchanaburi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7846177

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Nakhon Pathom 1–1 Kanchanaburi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.46 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 1.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nakhon Pathom (1X2) 30.1 28.4 +1.7
Draw (1X2) 29.4 28.3 +1.1
Kanchanaburi (1X2) 40.5 43.2 -2.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.4 +1.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.6 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.4%. The difference — about 1.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nakhon Pathom (1X2) 3.14 3.18 -0.4
Draw (1X2) 3.38 3.19 +1.6
Kanchanaburi (1X2) 2.04 2.09 -1.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.81 2.01 -5.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.95 1.74 +5.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Thai League 2
  • Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Kanchanaburi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Nakhon Pathom 1.19 — Kanchanaburi 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 2 Thai League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khon Kaen United 4 3 0 1 9
2 Uttaradit 4 2 2 0 8
3 Muang Loei United 4 2 1 1 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 7
5 Chainat 4 2 1 1 7
6 Muangthong United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Satun 4 2 0 2 6
8 Kanchanaburi 4 1 3 0 6
9 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 6
10 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 6
11 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 5
12 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 4
13 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 4
14 Phrae United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Esan Pattaya 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mahasarakham United 4 0 3 1 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 2
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Satun 4 11 9 +2 6
2 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 9 7 +2 7
3 Uttaradit 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Khon Kaen United 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Muang Loei United 4 6 2 +4 7
6 Kanchanaburi 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Songkhla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Chiangmai United 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Chainat 4 5 5 0 7
10 Chanthaburi 4 5 5 0 4
11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 5 7 -2 2
12 Police Tero 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Phrae United 4 4 5 -1 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 3 3 0 4
15 Muangthong United 4 3 4 -1 7
16 Mahasarakham United 4 3 6 -3 3
17 Esan Pattaya 4 1 6 -5 4
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 6 -6 1